Post #9: Diffusion Theory of Innovation in the Real World

Diffusion Theory of Innovation in the Real World

By Davis Trax

Throughout history, and even through our lives, people create ideas and they come to fruition and then they exist for a certain period of time. Every idea and creation that is made by man goes through a process of time, like where they are founded and created, and then a time where they grow and grow until the reach their peak and then fall to nothing. This is called the Everett Rogers Diffusion Theory of Innovation. Some of these have small peaks, but small falls. Others have large peaks and even larger falls. We'll speak on one of these today.

Today, we are doing the United States Post Office, a topic I have touched on recently, but it's fresh in my mind and has a pretty good example for Rogers Diffusion Theory of Innovation. The Post Office started in 1971 and it still has a huge impact in our mail production, but that doesn't mean it hasn't made its way through this course. The Pioneers phase date was probably March 9, 1858, when the first mailbox was invented by Albert Potts. This signals the time when people could have boxes that mail could be delivered too and hold mail that should be delivered. 

Early adopter phase, when people started sending out more mail, also has to do with mailboxes, but also with transportation. The post-mounted letter box was perfected and early automobiles were around leading to the change in transportation and that was around 1908, so that was a huge transformational year. 1926 was when First Class mail was introduced and this was when the US Post Office hit its early majority phase and in 1930, mail volume broke the 15,000 mark. In 1973, the 50,000 mark was broken and in 1998, the 100,000 mark was broken. The critical mass phase came in the year 2001, when the volume for first-class mail was at it's highest, a massive 103,656. 

Everything seemed all well and good until 2004. This was the year a company - which was pretty new at the time - changed everything. You may have heard of this company before. Google created G-Mail, which revolutionized the already growing email. It started with one gigabyte of storage, which was larger than other email companies, but as it kept growing in users, they added storage. By now, G-Mail has over 1.5 billion users as of October, 2019, and there are now over 15 gigabytes of free usage. This addition and the lowering of the Post Offices First-Class Mail volume numbers cause this to be the maturation phase.

Finally we reach the saturation phase, the most recent date in history. This date is actually a lot more recent than you might think. People still use the Post Office to send letters and packages since it's a more sentimental way of messaging than it used to be, but in 2021, the US Post Office decided to slow down mail to save money and limit air travel and rely more on ground transportation. Saving money by slowing down does not exactly sound like the best business model, but go for it. Brian Naylor said in an NPR article that lots of criticism states a "death spiral" for the Post Office. There are more objective facts, more concrete information and more knowledgable opinions on why this is not a good move, but I'll say my piece and I'll keep it short. Slowing may save money, but it doesn't seem like there will be a steady or major profit, so eventually they might have to continue cutting stuff out.

Hopefully, there are big differences in the numbers the Post Office sports, because that would completely change this article, but for now, this is where the Post Office stands and this is a great example of the diffusion theory of innovation thanks to Everett Rogers. Hopefully companies in the communication industry last longer and hopefully, the Post Office doesn't fall into nothingness.